[Interview with Ri Jong-ho]: How Does Kim Jong Un View President Trump's Reelection?

Based on the firsthand experiences of former high-ranking North Korean official Ri Jong-ho, the interview series, 'Through the Eyes of Ri Jong-ho' explores the secrets of Kim Jong-un's regime and its core power structure, analyzing the strengths and weaknesses of North Korea’s current policies across politics, economy, and society. 

As Donald Trump has been elected the 47th President of the United States, it is likely that North Korea has shown keen interest in the outcome. Given North Korea’s close ties with Russia, how would Kim Jong-un perceive Trump's return to the White House?

"In a way, four years is a short time. If President Trump wants to resolve the North Korea issue, he must pursue a realistic strategy during his term that leads to North Korea giving up its nuclear weapons and joining the international community through openness. I would also advise that calling Kim Jong-un a ‘friend’ or saying he ‘likes him’ undermines universal American and global values and diminishes national dignity."

From the perspective of a long-term regime like North Korea, a U.S. president’s four-year term is relatively short. This underscores the need for the next Trump administration to move beyond previous engagement policies and focus on achieving tangible results.

“Kim Jong-un Will Prioritize Putin Over Trump”

[Interviewer] Mr. Ri Jong-ho, welcome. President Donald Trump has won the recent U.S. presidential election and is set to return to the White House after four years. As you've previously noted, North Korea likely paid close attention to the election, right?

[Ri Jong-ho] Yes. North Korea would have taken a strong interest in the outcome. Who leads the United States significantly affects North Korea’s domestic and foreign policies—especially in politics, economy, security, and diplomacy. 

North Korea has a long list of unresolved issues with the U.S., including denuclearization-linked sanctions relief, legitimizing its military cooperation with Russia, escalating military and political tensions with South Korea, and the human rights issue. 

However, based on historical experience, North Korea knows that U.S. policy toward Pyongyang rarely changes regardless of who is president. So their expectations won’t be high. Still, they will likely send a congratulatory message to Trump and explore ways to use the U.S. president to their advantage. 

In my view, Kim Jong-un will continue to value Vladimir Putin over Donald Trump. North Korea will closely monitor U.S. North Korea policy and craft its strategy accordingly.

[Interviewer] In the U.S., there’s very little attention on North Korea these days, and no real expectation that the nuclear issue will be resolved. Yet throughout his campaign, Trump kept saying he had a good relationship with Kim Jong-un and would get along with him if re-elected. He even claimed that Kim is waiting for him. But with North Korea now openly supporting Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, what kind of relationship do you foresee between Trump and Kim’s regime?

[Ri Jong-ho] With Trump’s re-election, Kim Jong-un—who has committed troops to the Russia-Ukraine war—must be feeling conflicted. If asked whether he prefers the U.S. or Russia, I’d say he prefers Russia and aims to build a blood-forged long-term alliance. 

That said, because Trump once called Kim a ‘friend’ and exchanged personal letters, Kim might try to meet Trump again to gain international recognition and push for sanctions relief. But Trump may also pressure Kim on denuclearization or North Korea’s military ties with Russia. So for Kim, Trump’s return isn’t entirely welcome.

I believe Trump’s continued emphasis on his 'good relationship' with Kim is part of an effort to frame his prior meetings with a nuclear-armed dictator as a diplomatic asset. Trump has often highlighted those meetings as personal achievements, regardless of whether they led to real denuclearization. 

That’s why I believe U.S.–North Korea relations will remain uncertain over the next four years. Four years is a short time, and if Trump wants to make real progress, he must implement a practical strategy that pushes North Korea to abandon its nuclear program and open up to the international community.

“Trump Needs a Realistic North Korea Strategy Within Four Years”

[Interviewer] Do you think we’ll see another Trump-Kim summit? After the failed Hanoi summit in 2019, would Kim even agree to another meeting? And if so, how could denuclearization be addressed?

[Ri Jong-ho] I think a renewed summit is possible. Trump has said he would meet Kim again if re-elected. Kim would likely invite Trump to Pyongyang to strengthen his international stature and seek recognition as a nuclear state. If that happens, issues like sanctions and human rights may be sidelined. 

However, the U.S. president has countless urgent matters to address—Russia’s war in Ukraine, conflicts in the Middle East, tensions between China and Taiwan, U.S.-China rivalry, and border issues. North Korea is no longer a top priority, and expectations for resolution are fading.

It’s hard to predict whether Trump will repeat his prior strategy of using a summit to garner global attention or take meaningful steps toward denuclearization. Importantly, Kim is no longer the same leader he was in 2018–2019. He’s advanced North Korea’s nuclear arsenal and declared himself a proud nuclear state. He has also forged a military alliance with nuclear-armed Russia and joined its war effort in Ukraine. 

The next Trump administration must view Kim through a new lens and prepare a new strategy. Trump’s previous summits failed to produce results. Some experts argue that instead of another fruitless dialogue, the U.S. must show Kim that regime survival is impossible without denuclearization.

[Interviewer] Trump is known for his top-down leadership style and direct dealings. He’s also someone who likes to score big wins. Could this lead to a breakthrough, or might it undermine denuclearization efforts?

[Ri Jong-ho] As I’ve said before, Kim sees U.S. presidents as temporary four-year players. He will develop a strategy to extract benefits during Trump’s term. The U.S. has failed to secure denuclearization over the past 32 years. 

To be blunt, the reason North Korea now proudly calls itself a nuclear state and threatens the U.S. and South Korea is because previous administrations were deceived by Pyongyang’s tactics. The next Trump administration needs advisers with a clear vision and solid negotiation strategies.

Trump favors transactional diplomacy—give one, take one. He might agree to partial sanctions relief or economic support in exchange for freezing or dismantling parts of North Korea’s nuclear program. He may even retrieve some warheads. But once Trump leaves office, Kim will simply restart his program in hidden underground facilities. 

Since no one can inspect North Korea’s closed-off sites, such deals won’t lead to real denuclearization. If negotiations resume, the U.S. must send Kim a strong message: unless he gives up nuclear weapons, his regime’s survival cannot be guaranteed.

“Calling Kim a ‘Friend’ Damages U.S. Policy and Values”

[Interviewer] You’ve said before that Kim aligned himself with Russia early in his rule. Will Trump’s re-election impact North Korea’s ties with Russia and China?

[Ri Jong-ho] North Korea’s military cooperation with Russia has evolved into a strong alliance. This began in 2014 when Kim tried to escape China’s influence. Poor relations with Xi Jinping and a desire to end North Korea’s diplomatic isolation drove Kim toward Russia. Trump’s re-election may broaden Pyongyang’s diplomatic options. 

Still, I believe North Korea will maintain close ties with Russia and use relations with the U.S. as leverage. Meanwhile, relations with China have deteriorated significantly. If the U.S. and South Korea play their cards right, they could pressure China to push North Korea toward denuclearization and openness.

[Interviewer] I understand you directly advised the White House before the 2018 Trump-Kim summit. Much has changed since. What advice would you give the next Trump administration?

[Ri Jong-ho] I would advise President-elect Trump to establish and implement a clear, realistic strategy for denuclearization and human rights during his term. In the past, North Korea has used U.S. presidential terms to stall and deceive. 

This time, Trump must not fall into that trap. He must produce tangible results within four years and deliver an ultimatum: Kim’s regime cannot survive without denuclearization.

Finally, I must emphasize: calling Kim a ‘friend’ or expressing admiration for him undermines U.S. values and damages America’s dignity. Kim is not a democratically elected leader. He is a brutal dictator responsible for executing his own people and destroying their freedom and human rights. 

Friendly rhetoric toward such a figure must stop. North Korean human rights should be a top policy priority, and the U.S. should work closely with South Korea to open North Korea and secure freedom and life for its people.

[Interviewer] We’ve been speaking with Ri Jong-ho, former senior official of North Korea’s Office 39, on what Trump’s re-election could mean for U.S.–North Korea relations. Mr. Ri, thank you for your insights.

To read original Korean article, click here: https://www.rfa.org/korean/news_indepth/donald-trump-election-president-north-korea-11062024160418.html